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☆ With S&P back at new highs, now come the price target and earnings revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.

Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie

☆ There's a new biggest bull on Wall Street, and he sees the S&P 500 rising to 5,500
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus has reclaimed his place as the most optimistic when it comes to year-end S & P 500 targets. Stoltzfus, the firm's chief investment strategist, hiked his forecast for the S & P 500 to 5,500 from 5,200. He had the highest target price heading into the year at 5,200, but was outdone as some beat him to increasing their forecasts. Stoltzfus also increased his earnings projection for the S & P 500 in 2024 by $10 to $250, making him tied for another Street high. The benchmark S & P 500 has climbed nearly 10% so far in the new year.

Persons: Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, JPMorgan's Dubravko Organizations: CNBC Pro, Social Security, CNBC

☆ Why Friday’s key Nvidia reversal could mark the start of a broader stock market unwind
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But some investors are concerned markets could be due for a broader unwind without the help from AI names. As it is, five of the Magnificent Seven names dropped last week, with the exception of Nvidia and Meta Platforms. That advance has helped the S & P 500 climb for 16 out of 19 weeks, notching record after record in its ascent. "A consolidation in the AI trade has been overdue for a while now, so Friday's key reversal day could signal the start of that unwind." NVDA 5D mountain Nvidia Crowding in AI Indeed, other market observers warned investors the overreliance on AI beneficiaries this year could mean danger for the overall market.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Peter Boockvar, semi's, Dubravko, BTIG's Krinsky, there's, Russell, Chris Verrone, Goldman Sachs, Krinsky, Samantha Subin Organizations: Nvidia, Meta, Apple, AMD, Bleakley Financial, Google, JPMorgan, Sunday

☆ Are companies beyond Nvidia actually profiting from AI yet? Microsoft earnings to be litmus test
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Microsoft earnings due out later this month could serve as the next major test for artificial intelligence as investors hunt for signs that the buzzy technological innovation is actually boosting companies' bottom lines. Nvidia has been an exception, blowing past Wall Street's guidance for the past few quarters due to AI tailwinds . The remarks led some Wall Street analysts to fret over a delayed ramp-up in AI availability. "There are going to be some outliers, but for the most part there is more risk-reward related to AI going into this earnings period." More loosely, Wall Street analysts have expressed concerns about AI monetization and expectations across the sector heading into the fourth-quarter reporting period.

Persons: Paul Meeks, Merrill Lynch, Piper Sandler, OpenAI, Amy Hood, Copilot, Micrsoft, Meeks, Amy Kong, Nancy Tengler, Gene Munster, Corient's Kong, Wolfe, Alex Zukin, Dubravko, Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Merrill, Merrill Lynch Investment, Nvidia, Wall, Baker School of Business, The, Investments, Asset Management, Munster, Wall Street, Tech Locations: OpenAI, hasn't

☆ JPMorgan is still doubting the bull with lowest S&P 500 target
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Even as the S & P 500 nears a new high, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas remains relatively pessimistic on how 2024 will pan out. In a Friday client report, he called the early results and forward guidance from S & P 500 companies "lackluster." Just about one out of every 10 S & P 500 companies has reported results, according to FactSet. His concerns come as the S & P 500 is poised to hit an all-time high closing level on Friday. The average analyst has a 4,914 target for the S & P 500 at the end of 2024, according to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey.

Persons: JPMorgan hasn't, Dubravko, Bujas Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Fed, CNBC Pro's, Survey

(PRO subscribers can view the official 2024 strategist survey here . ) "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," Kostin wrote. Other Wall Street firms with similarly bullish forecasts include Citigroup and BMO Capital Markets, which each have S & P 500 price targets of 5,100. Barclays' Venu Krishna was even more bearish, anticipating the S & P 500 would fall to 3,725. Entering the penultimate trading week of the year, the S & P 500 is almost 23% higher in 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite has advanced almost 42%.

Persons: —, Stocks, Sam Stovall, Monday, Stovall, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, America's Savita Subramanian, JPMorgan's, Bujas, Morgan Stanley, BofA's Subramanian —, Venu Krishna, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Dow Industrials Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Goldman, Oppenheimer Asset Management, Citigroup, BMO Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Nvidia, Microsoft, Barclays, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's

☆ Wall Street closes amazing November in a bullish mood, and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

We are closing out an extraordinary month: The S & P 500 is up nearly 9%, its fourth-best month in 12 years. The equal weight S & P 500 is up almost as much as the market-cap weighted S & P 500. Of the 10 major financial firms, only two (Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan) see the S & P 500 lower next year. Wall Street strategists' year-end S & P 500 estimates . That puts the S & P 500 at a very rich multiple of almost 19 times forward earnings (17x is the historic norm).

Persons: Russell, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, bullish, Brian Belski, Scott Wren, Wren, That's, JP Morgan's, Dubravko Organizations: Wall, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Treasury, Core PCE, Wells Fargo Institute, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Atlanta

☆ JPMorgan strategists see 'challenging' backdrop for US stocks in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. The bank projected a 2024 price target for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) of 4,200, or about 8% below current levels. Absent rapid easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, "we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year," J.P. Morgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and his team said in an outlook report on Wednesday. "In contrast to this robust outlook, we expect lower sequential revenue growth, no margin expansion, and lower buyback executions," the strategists wrote. Those risks include two major wars and 40 countries holding national elections including the U.S., which the strategists expect will drive equity volatility to be generally higher in 2024 than in 2023.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan, Dubravko, J.P, Lewis Krauskopf, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 dropping nearly 8% in 2024 as macro risks build up
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The bank sees the S & P 500 ending 2024 at 4,200. "Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated." Stocks have had a banner year in 2023, with the S & P 500 surging more than 18%. Those gains have been largely driven by sharp rallies from names tied to artificial intelligence, including Nvidia and Meta Platforms . Specifically, he sees S & P 500 profits growing 2% to 3% next year.

Persons: Bujas, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Nvidia, Meta, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Companies laying off employees is a risk facing 2024, says JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCompanies laying off employees is a risk facing 2024, says JPMorgan's Dubravko LakosDubravko Lakos, chief global equity strategist at JPMorgan, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss higher for longer interest rates, the outlook for the market, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Lakos Organizations: Companies, JPMorgan

☆ 'Manias die in vicious ways': A pair of fund managers who have beaten 99% of their peers over the last 5 years warn the S&P 500 will shed at least 30% of its value when the current bubble pops
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

They likened the current environment to the dot-com bubble around 2000. Cole told Insider he thinks the S&P 500 will lose at least 30% of its value in the years ahead. "This financial euphoria episode has gone to a sustained high that makes the dot-com bubble look like small change," he wrote in the August 22 letter. Smead is the founder of Smead Capital Management and comanages the Smead Value Fund (SMVLX) with his son, Cole. Don't take that to mean the S&P 500 will deliver low returns every year until 2033.

Persons: Cole Smead, Cole, Bill Smead, Smead, Russell, Akin Oyedele, It's, Manias, Bill, Dubravko Lakos, Lakos Organizations: Smead Capital Management, Yahoo Finance, it's, Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, Paypal, Smead, Federal, JPMorgan, CNBC, Conference

☆ Wall Street's top strategists say this year's stock market rally is probably over
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos and Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson both see the end of the market rally. Higher-for-longer Fed interest rates and a potential hard landing for the economy risk dragging equities. And Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the latest evidence of a softening market was Nvidia's blowout earnings beat this week and the failed market rally that followed. "I can't think of any better news then what we got from [Nvidia] on Wednesday...and we had a failed rally. "They look for the market to tell them whether it's going to be a hard landing or not.

Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Dubravko, Jerome Powell, Wilson, he's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Fed, Bloomberg, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ The 2023 stock market rally is over as the Fed isn't easing anytime soon and a hard landing of the economy is inevitable, JPMorgan's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in the S&P 500 is capped through the rest of the year, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos said. That's because there are a litany of negative factors heading into 2024 that will weigh on equities. The strength of the US economy has only postponed a coming recession, not averted one, he added. Stocks could tumble 15% even in the event of a mild downturn, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic predicted in a recent note. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are now pricing in a 42% chance the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis-points in November.

Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Dubravko Lakos, Lakos, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC, Investors, Bank of America, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Dubravko LakosDubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief global equity strategist at JPMorgan, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the outlook for the rest of the year, the economy's strength, and how the market will react to Powell's comments from Jackson Hole.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Jackson Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ The AI boom won't be enough to avoid a hard landing for the economy, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The excitement around artificial intelligence has helped the stock market soar in 2023, but the growth won't be enough to keep the U.S. economy out of a recession, according to a top JPMorgan strategist. "In terms of AI driving massive productivity gains for the broader economy, yes, but like 3 years from now, 4 years from now. Predictions of a recession and a struggling stock market were more common on Wall Street earlier this year, but the U.S. has continued to add jobs while inflation has declined, and the stock market has rebounded. "I think there is no landing … until you get to [a] hard landing. JPMorgan has a year-end price target of 4,200 for the S & P 500 , which is below average among major Wall Street firms.

Persons: Dubravko, Bujas, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Fed won't be easing any time soon, says JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed won't be easing any time soon, says JPMorgan's Dubravko LakosDubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief global equity strategist at JPMorgan, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the outlook for the rest of the year, the economy's strength, and how the market will react to Powell's comments from Jackson Hole.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Jackson Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Joe Terranova, Dubravko Lakos and Ayako Yoshioka
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Joe Terranova, Dubravko Lakos and Ayako YoshiokaJoe Terranova, Virtus Investment, Dubravko Lakos, JPMorgan, and Ayako Yoshioka, Wealth Enhancement Group, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's next move and how it may impact the markets.

Persons: Joe Terranova, Dubravko, Ayako Yoshioka Joe Terranova, Dubravko Lakos, Ayako Organizations: Virtus Investment, JPMorgan Locations: Virtus

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ 'Market instability' possible before last-minute debt ceiling deal, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The looming potential of a federal debt default could soon cause a sharp increase in fear in the stock market, according to JPMorgan Chase. "Our base case remains that the debt ceiling ultimately does get lifted/suspended though the journey to that end could be at the eleventh hour and drive significantly higher market instability than appreciated by the market currently," Lakos-Bujas wrote. as a consequence of partial/comprehensive debt ceiling deal and/or Federal budget negotiation in the fall of this year," Lakos-Bujas wrote. One way for investors to guard against a sharp move in stocks is to buy call spreads on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) , often called Wall Street's fear index. .VIX 1Y mountain The Cboe Volatility Index is trading near its lowest level of the past year.

☆ Stock futures rise slightly following Apple earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 21, 2023 in New York City. Stock futures ticked higher Thursday evening. S&P 500 futures inched up by 0.24%, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 46 points, or 0.14%. The S&P 500 lost 0.72%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.49%. The S&P 500 is off 2.6%, while the Nasdaq is off 2.1%.

☆ Expect rotation into defensive stocks to continue, says JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect rotation into defensive stocks to continue, says JPMorgan's Dubravko LakosDubravko Lakos, JPMorgan global head of equity macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the risk of recession and his post-risk playbook.

☆ A.I. enthusiasm is responsible for the bulk of the stock market’s gain this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Digging deeper into the gains, Nvidia turns up as a big winner. Meta Platforms shares have doubled. If the Fed signals a pause Wednesday and rates fall, the market could see tech stocks rip higher. To be sure, other factors besides for AI have contributed to this year's rally in technology stocks. Jason Tauber, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman said AI stocks should start to experience bifurcation from here on out.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

☆ 'The risk of recession is far from priced in': JPMorgan warns stocks are set up for a 'bearish outcome' as investors crowd into the top names in the market at rates last seen in the 2000 and 2008 bubb
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are crowding into the biggest stocks in the S&P 500 at levels seen in prior bubbles. On a surface level, the S&P 500 looks like it's having a stellar start to 2023. The chart below shows crowding levels in low-volatility stocks, which investors seek in recessionary environments. If the US economy continues to avoid a recession, stocks could be well positioned to continue their gains this year. But many strategists believe a downturn — or at least a pullback in earnings — will drag the S&P 500 down to its October 2022 lows, or worse.

☆ Next week's stock market moves hinge on the longer-term outlook for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.

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